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As the new year 2026 dawns, President Donald Trump is taking actions that further complicate the already complicated external environment, not only for our country but also for global markets, even putting world peace at risk by initiating a new interventionist phase, supported by his military power, which could be taken as an example by other powers, such as Russia and China, for similar purposes, putting the world on the brink of a dangerous military escalation.
Without a doubt, Trump's statements regarding Greenland, which for reasons of "national security" should be annexed or acquired by the United States.
Whether on friendly terms or through the use of force, it would be a fatal blow to NATO and to the European Union's relationship with the United States, and would set a precedent, for example, for China to take over Taiwan and Russia to take over the whole of Ukraine, setting precedents that would be difficult to accept and leading to retaliation in all areas.
The military intervention in Venezuela, kidnapping its acting president, although it has not yet resulted in a response that would impose punishment on the United States, has gone further, and there is now de facto control over that country and its oil reserves, which have the global oil market in check.
This is without considering that judges in the United States have a hot potato on their hands, since they are not judging an ordinary citizen, but a sitting head of state, without legal authority to do so, and would set a dangerous precedent if they did.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, a traditional ally of the United States, has already decided to join the BRICS, along with other countries, and they are beginning to present a financial front against the US dollar, including an alternative international payment system to SWIFT, putting an end to the monopoly and international financial control of the United States.
Oil can no longer be paid for in US dollars, putting an end to yet another US monopoly.
Obviously, these events have an impact on global trade and capital flows, compounded by the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the United States, which has decided to use them as a weapon to negotiate its objectives and impose its conditions.
One initial implication of this has been the weakness of the US dollar, which, although it has allowed many currencies to appreciate, not just the peso, will ultimately have repercussions on interest rates, which also impact the real sector of the economy.
In the case of specific actions affecting our country, Trump has already stated that he prefers bilateral trade agreements to the current USMCA, which does not bode well for Mexico, as Canada has been a good brake on the United States' desires, such as having commercial legal matters resolved in US courts, a request that Mexico had already accepted in the last renegotiation and which was eliminated because Canada did not accept it.
The tariffs that Mexico recently imposed on China.
They are certainly the result of pressure imposed by the United States, confirming that our country is at the mercy of whatever they decide, and that also forced a change in the discourse of our Secretary of Economy, who after criticizing the imposition of tariffs by the United States, arguing that it is a shot in the foot because consumers pay for it, now changes his discourse and says that tariffs are good because they "protect" Mexican producers.
The recent release of water from Mexican dams to pay part of the water debt to the United States is yet another example of how our neighbor is imposing its conditions on us, which will ultimately have an impact on the availability of this resource for agricultural purposes, affecting the country's economy.
Finally, if the United States were to intervene militarily in Mexican territory to combat drug cartels, it would be very interesting to see how our government would respond to defend our "sovereignty," and to find out if there would be economic measures as part of the "response," or if it would expropriate U.S. companies, just thinking out loud, since I don't see a scenario of no response as very likely, in light of the patriotic speeches of the person in charge of the presidency.
In short, the external environment looks very worrying and could accelerate the economic recession and the public finance crisis, which, to be honest, the 4T does not need external help to achieve.
We're like someone falling from a 100-story building, and when they pass the 50th floor, they say, "Well, nothing serious has happened to us so far."
Written by Marco Antonio Pérez Valtier.
